Why US airstrikes on the Houthis will fail

The United States has started what might well prove to be a long – and probably doomed – campaign of air strikes against Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, in Yemen.

Since October 2023, the Houthis have been very successfully disrupting shipping in the Red Sea, firing missiles and launching drones at cargo ships, oil tankers, passenger vessels: hitting a few, sinking fewer, and inconveniencing millions. While few ships have been hit, fewer sunk, and even fewer people killed by this campaign, the numbers speak for themselves. Fewer and fewer ships are transiting the region, including using the Suez Canal to cut journey times between Asia and Europe. World shipping costs have risen fast. Supply chains took an initial shock and kept taking shocks as the Houthi campaign continued and broadened.

The Houthis claimed that all of this was in protest at the Israeli bombing and occupation of Gaza, and that it only targeted ships going to and from Israel, or which were owned by Israeli companies, or which carried Israeli goods or Israeli insurance.