Why this Budget could be worse than you fear

It is tempting to think of this Budget as a triumph in expectation management. Rachel Reeves’s minions have briefed us on so many potential tax rises that surely the actual speech, when finally delivered, can’t be as bad as feared. Having been conditioned to expect the worst, we will all end up feeling pathetically grateful to Reeves for having spared us.

But having run through a few figures I am not so sure. Rather, I fear we may be in for whatever is the opposite of a rabbit out of the hat – a toad out of the hat, perhaps. Over the past few days we have been told to expect net tax rises of £35 billion – rather more than the £22 billion ‘black hole’ that Reeves claims was left in the public finances by the Tories (actually, £9 billion of that was public sector pay rises which Reeves herself announced, and which had nothing to do with the previous government).