Why there won’t be a Scottish independence poll this year

There will be no second referendum on Scottish independence this year. This is certain. And it is not because Boris Johnson has today told Nicola Sturgeon that, as expected, he is not minded to pass control of the UK constitution from Westminster to Holyrood – but because the people of Scotland are not yet demanding a referendum within Sturgeon’s preferred timetable. Indeed, they are not demanding a referendum at all. 

Absent evidence of an overwhelming enthusiasm for reopening the national question – evidence not yet furnished by any respectable opinion poll – the UK government’s position will hold. For the time being, it is a position supported by the majority – a narrow majority, but a majority nonetheless – of Scottish voters. 

This, it should be obvious, is no kind of long-term answer to the provisionality with which the Union is presently maintained. But for the time being, and being the stoutest rope available, it will do for lack of anything better.