Why the Treasury always wins

One of the abiding flaws of British political discourse is that it overlooks the importance of organisation and institutions. The political village where I’ve spent my career talks too much about politics and personality; a bit – but not enough – about policy; and almost not at all about organisations.

This creates blind-spots and surprises. Many people at Westminster were surprised by the election of Jeremy Corbyn and his resilience as leader in the face of internal challenge. That’s because they overlooked the vital importance of the Labour Party membership – which Corbyn successfully changed – and the party’s internal structures.

Seen through the lens of party organisation, the fall of Theresa May and her Brexit deal and the rise of Boris Johnson were wholly predictable: the small Tory membership skews heavily towards older men who are more likely than the typical Briton to i) own their own business and ii) want the cleanest break with the EU.