Why are the Conservatives so serene after losing the Clacton by-election and seeing their vote collapse in Heywood and Middleton? It is not that the party has finally decided endless fighting is no longer a good idea, but that it is holding its breath for the Rochester and Strood by-election. If Mark Reckless, the second Ukip defector, wins this, then the meltdown in David Cameron’s party will make the Labour response this week look positively icy.
The Tories had quickly accepted Douglas Carswell would win in Clacton and so there was little excuse for even their more febrile factions to panic. But the party believes it has a good chance of winning, partly because it’s only the 271st friendliest seat for Ukip, and partly because Reckless does not have Carswell’s personal popularity.
They must keep Rochester in order to deter other would-be defectors.
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