Why the Tories can’t count on the Hong Kong vote

On a high street in suburban London, a curious message appeared recently. Written on a stand-up whiteboard in traditional Chinese, it read: ‘Thank you to Chris Patten, who fought for British residency for Hong Kongers. 4 July – please vote Conservative’.

In the last few years, the leafy commuter town of Sutton, to the south of London, has seen thousands of new arrivals from Hong Kong since the government opened up a route to citizenship for those with British Nationals (Overseas) passports. In total, 140,000 have arrived in the UK since 2021, most of them given the right to vote. In a number of constituencies, they make up a significant new voter base (in three, according to analysis from the organisation Hong Kong Watch, their population actually outnumbers the local MP’s majority). Tomorrow, they will be voting in their first general election.

It’s an opportunity eagerly taken up.