Last year, marking the tenth anniversary of Scotland’s independence referendum, I wrote an article for The Spectator looking at the state of Scotland’s political conversation and the prospects for the cause of independence a decade on from defeat.
After setting out why I thought MSPs ought to pass a budget that crossed the nationalist-unionist divide, softening the intense tribalism that has become a hallmark of parliamentary exchange, I also cast an eye forward to next year’s Holyrood election, in which no party is likely to have overall control. Recent polling trends show that Reform UK are hoovering up support from disillusioned Conservative and Labour voters alike, with Nigel Farage’s party likely to take seats in Scotland’s devolved legislature.
The trend also shows the SNP remaining the largest party – albeit with fewer seats than it occupies now – and Labour’s dream of turning Bute House red, after a long 19-year winter, looking increasingly distant thanks to Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves.
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