Why the red wave never crested in the US midterms

The 2022 midterm election was supposed to be a red wave. Instead, it turned out to be a night of razor-thin victories for Republicans, disappointment for many Donald Trump-backed candidates and a sigh of relief from Democrats. It was nothing approaching the wave some polling suggested. And it raises fundamental questions about the direction of the GOP in an era of party factionalism.

There are two fundamentals that consistently indicate the outcomes of most midterms: the approval rating of the president and the right track/wrong track question on the direction of the United States. Both indicators strongly showed a Republican wave was imminent, leading the overwhelming majority of prognosticators, myself included, to conclude that a major House sweep was incoming. The Senate map was more questionable, with Republicans having to defend the seats of several retiring members and a swathe of politically inexperienced outsider candidates winning nominations. But still, those fundamentals — paired with strong gubernatorial performances — looked likely to pull the new runners across the finish line.