Why the north-west Covid spike is alarming

It can be hard to keep track of the progress of the epidemic as the daily cases, hospitalisations and deaths often seem to tell a contradictory story. Each suffers from random noise, delays and incompleteness in reporting, and arguments about how exactly they should be compiled. However, the total number of Covid-19 patients in hospital in the north-west has recently been growing in a disturbingly consistent way – and justifies the strict new rules which have been brought in today in the region.

On 26 August, the number of hospitalised Covid patients in the region reached a low of 77. Five weeks later, this number has grown to 612 – an eightfold increase. While this is much lower than the 2,890 reached on 13 April, another eightfold increase would see it far exceed that first-wave peak. The arithmetic of epidemic growth means that such a further increase, perhaps over a similar timescale, cannot be ruled out – and could even be regarded as the expected outcome.