The growth forecasts might be too optimistic. The economy may yet turn down, the pressure on public services will only continue to rise, and, most of all, leaving the European Union may yet turn into a catastrophe. The Institute for Fiscal Studies did not waste much time in branding yesterday’s Budget ‘a bit of a gamble’, with plenty of risks attached to it.
In saying so, the IFS no doubt reflects the mainstream view in the economics profession and probably among the professional scribblers of the City as well. And yet the truth is that Philip Hammond didn’t take enough of a gamble. With the British economy in better shape than could have been expected at this stage in the Brexit cycle, he could have pushed forward far more aggressively and cut taxes as well as raising spending.
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