Not only does the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash in the fog and mountains in northern Iran, necessitate an election within 50 days, it has also removed the likely front-runner to replace Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
Anyone hoping for a revolution will probably be disappointed
Raisi was an attractive candidate because, as much as Khamenei himself was thrust into the role in 1989 due to his supposed weakness, a lack of a power base and a generally malleable profile, Raisi presented similarly: a loyal yes man unlikely to rock the boat and inclined to do as told. In a power transition from Khamenei to post-Khamenei, watched over by the all-powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), these were good qualities.
His death leaves the succession open to Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, a far less pliable figure, more prone to independent thought. This could be a cause for concern for the IRGC, Iran’s real power brokers.
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