The no-deal Catch 22 for the Tories is well-established, bringing comfort to those who oppose no-deal (and Brexit) and worry to those who rightly see no-deal as the only way of actually leaving the EU. The idea is that the Tories cannot fight an election until Britain has genuinely left the EU, but that it will be impossible to leave without an election that would put Corbyn in power and stop Brexit altogether.
The conclusion drawn by some Tories is that the new prime minister, whoever it is, will have to ask for another extension. But that’s wrong. And while there is an existential issue for the Tories, there could be an even worse one for Labour – and even a dilemma for the Brexit Party: should they seek a pact with the Tories? Whatever happens, a radical reconfiguring of the political landscape is overwhelmingly likely.
The key to understanding this is the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system.
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