If Sinn Fein emerges with the most seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly elections this week, it will not be because the party has grown in popularity since the last vote in 2017. It will be because support for the DUP is at its lowest in more than two decades.
The DUP has suffered because of its failure to prevent Boris Johnson from agreeing the protocol that left Northern Ireland subject to EU single-market and customs rules. Sinn Fein, meanwhile, has benefited from Brexit and the Conservatives’ assertion of a muscular form of Unionism, both of which have added legitimacy to calls for a border poll on Irish unity.
Another, more overlooked reason for Sinn Fein’s relative buoyancy is that it has retained the support of younger voters despite being part of government for most of the time since 2007. The LucidTalk tracker poll puts the party on 26 per cent among all voters, six points ahead of the DUP – but 15 ahead among voters aged 18 to 24 and 11 ahead among those between 25 and 44.
Sinn Fein presents itself as standing for economic, political and societal change
Sinn Fein has even more support among young voters in the Republic, where it is the most popular party with all voters, on 33 per cent in the polls, rising to 46 per cent among those aged 18 to 24 and 45 per cent among those between 25 and 34. But while it is an all-island organisation led from Dublin, Sinn Fein’s image and appeal are quite distinct north and south of the border.
In the Republic, it is a left-wing populist party that has seen its support grow as the impact of Ireland’s housing crisis has spread beyond the young and poor to reach the middle–aged and middle-class.
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