Why should Putin negotiate?

In just a few months we will mark the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The war has resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties, and has left millions displaced. Ukraine’s infrastructure – in particular the energy infrastructure – is in shambles. The costs of recovery will likely be in the trillions of dollars. And still, there is no end in sight.

As the war drags on, calls for negotiations are becoming louder. President Volodymyr Zelensky has been trumping up support for his Victory Plan. The details are unclear – presumably the ‘plan’ is to negotiate new military aid and viable security guarantees for Ukraine in return for the promise of a ceasefire and a probable forfeit of the occupied territories. But for any ceasefire to take effect, the other side has to want it.

To understand what Putin may want, we have to put ourselves in his shoes.