Why Russian tactics won’t win the war

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its second month, the war has settled into a largely attritional struggle – and the picture is very different across the various fronts. Russian forces have been forced on to the defensive in many areas. The Russian ministry of defence has announced that the ‘first phase’ of the invasion is over, to be replaced with a more limited focus on Donbas in the east of Ukraine. The reason for this is simple: Ukrainian forces have not only stopped the Russian advances around Kyiv in the north and Mykolaiv in the south-west but have begun to regain towns and cut key Russian supply routes. In the Donbas region in the east, however, Russian and separatist forces continue to make slow, costly progress in repeated assaults along the Donets river defence line. Meanwhile the grinding siege of Mariupol continues with unchecked ferocity. Russia appears desperate to find its first major victory of the campaign in the ruins of the city.