A spectre is haunting Wales. Fresh from Reform’s election victories in Westminster, Nigel Farage is turning his attention westwards, to Cardiff Bay. He wants Reform to replace the Tories there as the main challenge to Labour in May 2026, creating a major platform for his party ahead of the 2029 general election.
The man plotting the Tories’ downfall in Wales is someone who knows their leader well. Oliver Lewis, Reform’s chief spokesman, worked with Kemi Badenoch at Coutts. ‘She was very aware of the importance of fulfilling duties she felt were important to her,’ he says, carefully, when we speak. To beat his ‘reasonably competent’ old colleague, Lewis stresses an ‘open-minded’ approach to devolution and a simple message of change after a century of Welsh Labour hegemony. If the plan works in Wales, it could serve as a blueprint for elsewhere in the UK.
Reform’s hopes for 2026 are based on three constitutional novelties. The first is an expanded Senedd, from 60 members to 96, which lessens the natural advantage of any incumbency. The second is D’Hondt voting – a new proportional system that favours smaller parties. ‘It’s what the European parliament used,’ says one Reform aide. ‘We all know what that did for Farage-led political parties.’ The third is the expansion of the vote to 16- and 17-year-olds. Reform is expected to do well among first-time voters. Many Gen Z-ers regard Farage as a celebrity figure.
Reform certainly seems to be pushing at an open door. In July, the party came within 17,000 votes of relegating the Welsh Tories to third place for the first general election since 1931. Reform beat the Conservatives in 17 of the 32 parliamentary constituencies and finished second behind Labour in 13.
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