Why Putin is feeling more confident

At a recent closed-door session in Ukraine’s parliament, Kyrylo Budanov, the country’s spy chief, was asked how much longer Ukraine could hold on. His answer reportedly stunned the room: ‘If there are no serious negotiations by summer, very dangerous processes could begin, threatening Ukraine’s very existence.’ Ukraine’s military intelligence rushed to deny the statement, but his warning rings true. Vladimir Putin has every reason to believe he can still break Ukraine into submission later in the year, and plans to stall any peace settlement in the upcoming talks with Donald Trump.

Russian troops are advancing faster than they did in 2022. Last year, they captured more than 1,600 square miles in the Donetsk region, including four towns – Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar and Kurakhove. This month, 20 Ukrainian settlements have fallen, with Russian forces now just three miles from entering the Dnipropetrovsk region. Ukraine’s defence continues to crumble amid a critical infantry shortage and chaotic coordination between units.