The Norway Plus campaign has had a big boost today with both Labour and the SNP saying they’ll whip in favour of it. Given that the plan might well be acceptable to the DUP – as it means that the backstop wouldn’t come into force – and the Cabinet will be abstaining, it has a chance of getting a majority tonight. Though the number of Labour MPs who won’t want to back continuing free movement or are holding out for a second referendum means it’ll probably fall just short.
If it does pass, then the chances of a general election go up again. Fighting an election on the customs union would be a hard ask. It is difficult to see how other issues wouldn’t crowd it out after the first few days of the campaign. But it is easier to see how the Tories could fight an election against staying in both the single market and the customs union.
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