Ed Davey will be very happy about Nigel Farage’s political comeback. This might seem odd – Davey leads a socially liberal and vocally pro-EU party beloved by the latte sipping metropolitan professionals who loom large in Reform UK demonology. Yet it is the Liberal Democrats who stand to gain most from a Farage surge.
A little political history and a dash of political geography explains why. The Lib Dems had their own overlooked electoral surge last time, slashing Tory majorities in seats the length and breadth of the Home Counties. While they didn’t score any wins, they built a solid platform for this campaign, with dozens of strong second places leaving them well placed to profit from current Tory misfortunes.
There is no obvious solution to the Farage conundrum for Tory candidates in these seats
Here’s where Farage comes in. He stood down his Brexit party candidates in every Tory-held seat in 2019, and most of those votes ended up in the Tory column.
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