Why Neil O’Brien’s support for Robert Jenrick matters

What is the most significant development in the Tory leadership contest in the past week? The race is heating up ahead of Wednesday’s first knock-out round, with numerous launches in recent days. Yet it’s a development on Sunday that could be the most significant. The Sunday Telegraph reported that Neil O’Brien is endorsing Robert Jenrick. The ex-minister supported Jenrick’s main rival Kemi Badenoch two years ago. But the Tory MP also has a history of being a canary in the coal mine for the Tory party – offering an early indicator of potential danger and failure for various leaders.

In 2016, O’Brien was a close ally of George Osborne, the Remain-backing chancellor, working as his special adviser. Yet he is reported to have voted Leave, on the grounds that it could be the only chance in his lifetime. It is voters such as O’Brien that ultimately meant David Cameron’s gamble on an EU referendum proved to be misjudged and ended his premiership.