Rory Sutherland Rory Sutherland

Why most economic models are doomed from the outset

issue 09 June 2018

History records many well conceived and apparently logical grand plans for the betterment of mankind. Sadly such ideas almost always fail. Why is this? One possibility is that they fail precisely because they are logical.

The dictates of logic require the existence of universally applicable laws. But humans, unlike atoms, are not consistent enough in their affinities for such laws to hold very broadly.

For example we are not remotely logical in whom we choose to help. Will wealthy Germans help poorer Germans? Yup. Greeks, however? No chance. Utilitarianism makes perfect sense — right up to the point you try to apply it.

As Orwell said, ‘To an ordinary human being, love means nothing if it does not mean loving some people more than others.’

In his new book Skin in the Game, Nassim Taleb includes what is perhaps the most interesting quotation on politics I have ever read.

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