Brace yourselves for more Covid lockdown restrictions

I’ve been bombarded with emails and messages from data scientists who firmly believe that the trend to Covid-19 infections, based on when a specimen was taken, is flattening or even falling. On the basis of that analysis, they are convinced the government is overreacting by threatening to impose new social distancing measures. And if you look at the government’s Covid-19 dashboard, you will be struck that the seven-day average for positive results is sharply on the rise, whereas there is a modest fall in the seven-day average of results by the date the specimen was taken.

Now to be clear, those who are bossing this show – the Prime Minister, the Health Secretary, the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Adviser, advised by the Joint Biosecurity Centre – are all convinced that Covid-19 infections are rising in an alarming and dangerous way. In fact, one senior source, with a close knowledge of the data used by the Joint Biosecurity Centre, said:

‘All the data sources point to a rise in the infection rate.