Why Lansley might hang on

Perhaps, the biggest question about the post-Olympics reshuffle is what happens to Andrew Lansley. In an interview with The Times (£) today, he makes it abundantly clear that he expects to stay at Health. Now, there are certainly those in Downing Street who would like to see him moved. But I suspect that he’s got a better chance of staying in post than most people realise.

There are three reasons for this. First, Lansley is the person who understands best what the bill actually does. Anyone else on the Tory side would face a steep learning curve. Second, it is far from certain that a slicker communicator would actually fare better than Lansley has. As one Tory said to me the other day, ‘do you really imagine we wouldn’t have trouble with the Health Bill if Jeremy Hunt was there?

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, if Cameron were to move Lansley it would be seen as a tacit admission that the health reforms were a mistake.