Why it’s a good time to invest in a pub

It’s obvious from the body language of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey that negative interest rates — much talked about this week — are the last device he ever wants to use. Deployed with mixed success in Europe, this monetary equivalent of Pulp Fiction’s adrenaline jab in the heart is a desperate remedy against deflation, recession and banks’ reluctance to lend. UK banks have been given six months to prepare for the possibility, while Bailey has been talking up the likelihood of rapid recovery as vaccinations advance and Brexit trade disruptions fade. So by the time the banking system is ready, the negative-rate tool should be back in the vault and the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee — which last week voted unanimously to hold the base rate at 0.1 per cent — might even be looking forward to nudging rates upwards again.

The Bank’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, prematurely hailed a ‘V-shaped recovery’ last summer and has kept noticeably quiet since; let’s pray his boss has read the charts correctly this time.