Why it is splendid to be a Tory this weekend

As The Spectator went to press this week, the Conservative party hovered on the edge of the greatest electoral catastrophe of its history: a third consecutive election defeat and the certain prospect of 12 years in the wilderness. Nothing like this has ever happened before. It was not nearly so bad after the famous reverses of 1905 and 1945. Even the notorious split over the corn laws in 1846 was more easily remedied. The Tories were back in power (albeit briefly) under Lord Derby by 1852. To discover circumstances as intractable as today’s it is necessary to go back to the 18th century, when the Tories, tainted by treason, formed a permanent opposition for decades at a time.

This is the astonishing achievement of Tony Blair, and he knows it. Three weeks ago I smuggled myself into one of the Prime Minister’s election hustings, closed to all except party members and Downing Street-approved journalists. He informed this select audience that it was essential to win the 2005 general election campaign partly for the sake of the Conservatives, so that they would be able to reshape themselves as a new party, free of the wretched legacy of the past. The Prime Minister was echoing Margaret Thatcher, who sometimes allowed her advisers to speculate that her greatest legacy of all was to make the Labour party electable.

An influential part of the Tory party readily accepts this analysis, and agrees that the Tories cannot return to power until they have confessed to ancient crimes and re-engaged with civilised political life on terms set for them by New Labour. There are all kinds of reason why this thesis — favoured above all by the modernising faction whose leader Michael Portillo leaves Parliament at this election — is wrong. It is important to get this fallacy absolutely straight this weekend, before the arguments following the election defeat of 2005 get fully under way.