Why Israel’s attempt to wipe out Hamas will not succeed

After three weeks of airstrikes, Israel has begun its ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. The goal, in the words of the defence minister, Yoav Gallant, is to ‘wipe them [Hamas] off the face of the Earth’. But without a long-term political vision, this objective is unachievable. Even if Israel deals a powerful blow against Hamas, the country risks becoming trapped in a long and costly war that will cause a dangerous blowback across the Middle East. 

For now, Israel is concentrating on northern Gaza – which it sees as Hamas’s beating heart. This will be a bloody fight and the street-to-street combat could last for months. As Israeli forces move deeper into the Strip, they will face a determined and well-armed adversary who will use the urban landscape to its advantage. 

According to one source close to the leadership, Hamas’s military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, which appears to have orchestrated the 7 October attack on Israel, has been preparing for this moment for five years. The CIA estimates Hamas has between 20,000 and 25,000 fighters on the ground in Gaza. It also has the support of other armed groups, most notably Islamic Jihad – another Iranian-funded organisation. 

A crucial part of Hamas’s defences is its sprawling network of underground tunnels beneath Gaza, called ‘Gaza Metro’ by the Israeli military, which reportedly totals some 300 miles. The tunnels allow Palestinian fighters to move around the Strip in relative safety and to ambush advancing soldiers. It’s also the hiding place for many of Israel’s top targets, such as Mohammed Deif, the leader of the al-Qassam Brigades. He has survived several assassination attempts and it is now believed he spends all of his time underground. Since Israel’s siege began, Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s leader in Gaza, has also escaped into the bunker system.