Why isn’t David Cameron’s EU referendum strategy working? (Because it’s stupid)

Expediency is usually just trouble deferred. That’s the first thing to remember about David Cameron’s ham-fisted approach to his european referendum problem. The second thing to remember is that it is not, and never has been, about europe at all. It’s always been about the Tory party.

Which means the third thing to know is that it’s hardly a surprise Cameron’s approach is failing. Sure, everyone says, the Outers need to be ten points ahead if they’re going to win. And maybe that is right. But they’re running 50-50 at the moment and if I were an Outer I’d be happier about that than if I was an Inner. (This should obviously be known as the Belly-Button Referendum.)

A significant chunk of the Conservative party – perhaps amounting to 40 percent of members and a decent minority of the parliamentary party too – want Cameron to fail. This has always been obvious. I defy anyone to think of circumstances in which, for instance, Daniel Hannan could be persuaded to back a Stay In vote.