Trump is headed to the White House. As I write, that is the consensus of almost all political experts, including the New York Times’ Nate Cohn, who puts Trump’s chance of victory at greater than 95 per cent. Trump is set to pick up at least one – and possibly all three – of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. It is not confirmed yet, but it looks likely Trump will win all seven swing states.
Cohn also projects a Trump lead in the popular vote, by 1.2 points. That would be the first time a Republican has won the popular vote since George Bush in 2004.
There will be many postmortems to come, including from my firm, J. L. Partners. We tentatively look like the most accurate polling and modelling firm in the race, with our model being the most bullish for Trump and our final national poll calling the popular vote for Trump.
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