James Forsyth reviews the week in politics
The bar of the Brighton Metropole hotel was packed on Saturday night, with the sort of people locals would want to avoid. It was the Tory spring conference, and the journalists and aides were drawn to the bar not only by the prospect of doing a whole conference’s worth of drinking in one night but by news of a ‘seismic’ poll in the Sunday Times. If there was going to be conference drama, no one wanted to miss it. When midnight passed with no news, anticipation heightened. In the early hours of the morning, the news arrived: the YouGov poll pointed to a Labour victory.
Until that poll was published, ‘Five more years of Gordon Brown’ had been little more than a Tory slogan; no one could quite believe that the electorate would inflict that on themselves. But after 2 a.m. on Sunday morning, it looked a real and frightening prospect. The Tories were still ahead but the absurdly skewed nature of the electoral system means that a two-point Tory lead would result in Labour being by far the largest party in a hung parliament. More drinks were ordered.
Gabby Bertin, Cameron’s press secretary, grasped that this poll provided the Tories with an opportunity. They could use it to turn Cameron’s speech into a make or break moment, confident that he would pass the test — and rise from this very low base.
For the second time in his leadership, Cameron had blown a big opinion poll lead. For the second time, he sought to redeem the situation by speaking without notes. His speech passed the test. But it had lost the shock of the new. The opinion polls did recover, if a minority government against one of the most unpopular Labour leaders in modern history can be called a recovery.
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