Why do the polls make anyone confident that Donald Trump will lose?

Today’s reports about the confident noises coming from Hillary Clinton’s camp made me think about the reports I picked up about how confident David Cameron was about the EU referendum on voting day. We later found out, his pollster Andrew Cooper had research from his firm, Populus, predicting a ten-point victory. The MPs I spoke to, who had been out campaigning in the field, seemed to agree: after all this fuss, Brexit would all blow over. By lunchtime on polling day, the bookmakers put the odds of Leave at 15pc; they would later sink to 7pc.

The noises that I picked up – that noises pretty much everyone in my trade were picking up – hummed the same tune. Just like today. Who, out there, is predicting that Donald Trump will win? About as many people who predicted that Leave would win the EU referendum. Seeing Hillary fans celebrate tonight also reminds me of the Democrats I saw hug each other with such glee at their rally in Boston on election night 2004 – where the final polls, again suggested a John Kerry triumph.