So there we have it. Westminster’s favourite parlour game has finally concluded. We now know the date of the general election, 4 July. As his political capital continues to seep away, Rishi Sunak has decided to play one of his last remaining jokers – the right to call an election before he’s constitutionally obliged. But given the Conservatives remain more than 20 points behind Labour in the polls, the question remains: why didn’t Rishi wait?
Much as Boris had a ‘countdown to Brexit’ clock installed in CCHQ in 2019, Sunak might as well install a ‘countdown to California’ clock in No. 10
Let’s be blunt. Barring some kind of miracle, the Tories are going to lose – and badly. Even if the polls narrow over the campaign, Sunak cannot possibly be thinking of winning. The best-case scenario for him is denying Labour an overall majority. Even in a hung parliament, Keir Starmer would almost certainly become prime minister, owing to the complete absence of parliamentary allies for the Conservatives. In other words, a July election is an election which is destined to lead to Rishi Sunak leaving office. Much as Boris had a ‘countdown to Brexit’ clock installed in CCHQ in 2019, Sunak might as well install a ‘countdown to California’ clock in No. 10.
One of the most common flaws among political strategists is the desire to choose the bold option, in the hope of appearing cunning and adventurous, when the safe, boring, unsexy option is wiser. You can almost picture the clever young things in Downing Street convincing themselves that Labour will be wrong-footed by a July election. But if this is meant to leverage the element of surprise, it’s hardly a bombshell. Labour’s manifesto is already largely complete and their national campaign has been ready to go for months. Does it really matter that Keir Starmer and Morgan McSweeney had privately been expecting October or November instead of July? If anything, a summer campaign suits the Labour ground operation even better.
From the outset, Rishi Sunak’s best option was to play for time. The key economic indicators in the autumn are likely to be better than they are now, and – crucially – a few extra months allows time for voters to actually feel the benefit of falling inflation. Furthermore, it is feasible that the first flights to Rwanda will have taken off by October or November, and if there’s evidence the scheme is proving an effective deterrent, it would have given the Conservatives a potent attack line against Labour, who are still pledging to scrap the policy. Then there’s the potential for the unexpected. From the financial crash to the Covid pandemic, events that change the political weather tend to come out of the blue. By going early, Sunak has simply reduced the window for such an event to benefit him.
Most prime ministers attempt to cling to power. Callaghan could, and probably should, have called an election in October 1978, but decided the risk of leaving Downing Street earlier than necessary was too high. Both Gordon Brown and John Major toyed with early elections, but chose to see out their full term. Speaking on his podcast Political Currency recently, George Osborne told Ed Balls about his experience as an advisor in the dying days of the last Tory government, ‘there was endless speculation John Major could go early… but every single day you’re confronted with that question, you come to the conclusion that we’re going to lose if we call it today, so let’s see what happens tomorrow.’
On a human level, this makes complete sense. No one who ends up in No. 10 does so by accident. Most have dreamed of it for their entire career and will be remembered for little else. Sunak only became prime minister in October 2022. If he’s expecting to lose anyway, why doesn’t he give himself 27 months as PM, as opposed to 21 or 24? It isn’t simply historical vanity that makes outlasting Anthony Eden desirable. Surely Sunak should want to use every day available to deliver on his priorities: from improving the economy to leading the global strategy on AI? The fact he doesn’t says a lot. Maybe he just can’t wait for California after all.
Watch Cindy Yu and Andrew Neil discuss the election announcement on The View from 22:
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