Why did No. 10 ignore the CIA’s advice that the 45-minute claim was nonsense?

Bob Woodward of Watergate fame has just published an account of the background to the Iraq war called Plan of Attack. It has attracted a good deal of publicity in this country, particularly for its assertion, which has not been denied, that President George W. Bush told Tony Blair shortly before hostilities began that there would be no hard feelings if British troops were not involved. But there is an even more sensational claim which, so far as I can see, has been reported only by the Times. It has to do with the so-called weapons of mass destruction.

According to Mr Woodward, President Bush referred to the famous 45-minute claim in a conversation in the White House rose garden on 26 September 2002. The British government had published its dossier two days previously. Mr Bush reportedly said: ‘According to the British government, the Iraqi regime could launch a biological or chemical attack in as little as 45 minutes after the orders were given.’ Mr Woodward notes at this point (the passage occurs on page 190): ‘[George] Tenet [the CIA director] and the CIA had warned the British not to make that allegation, which was based on a questionable source, and almost certainly referred to battlefield weapons — not ones that Iraq could launch at neighbouring countries, let alone American cities. Tenet referred privately to this as “they-can-attack-in-45-minutes-shit”.’

The implication is that Mr Tenet told British intelligence before the dossier was published by the British government that the CIA did not believe this particular source’s claim. Mr Tenet was a fervent believer in WMD, telling Mr Bush (according to Mr Woodward) on 21 December 2002 that their existence was ‘a slam dunk’ (i.e., a certainty). He simply did not believe in the 45-minute claim. He also — correctly as it turned out — warned Mr Bush against accepting the claim by British Intelligence that Iraq attempted to buy uranium oxide from Niger.