As we get closer to the American election, Democrats in swing states like Pennsylvania and Arizona are sounding notes of cautious optimism. Others, in Texas and Georgia, are daring to dream that Joe Biden’s national poll lead (mainly driven by suburban women) might flip those consistently red states to their column. In Florida, on the other hand, the mood is one of cautious pessimism. As it always is.
Democrats are still haunted by Al Gore’s loss in 2000, when the Supreme Court halted a recount in Florida, delivering the presidency to George W Bush. In 2018, the polls showed that Democrats were on course to win Senate and Governor candidates in Florida, but they lost both, by 0.1 and 0.4 points respectively. This ended up being the only Senate gain for Republicans in a purple state and the Democrats’ sixth consecutive loss of the Florida Governor’s mansion.
Democrats’ problems may continue this year.
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