The government has restricted the movements of millions of people in England because Covid is apparently on the rise. But what happens when you start digging into the data?
I have used two datasets to piece together the number of tests, cases and results for Pillar 1 tests (which are done in healthcare settings) and Pillar 2 tests (which are done in the community).
Looking at the data for July, by the date PCR tests are reported, you can see a trend for an increased number of cases detected (from about 500 to nearly 750 a day). If you then look at the date the actual tests were taken, the trend is still apparent:
Now all things being equal, the increase in cases is about 250 per day over a month – not an exponential rise and no sudden jump. But is this a real increase or could it be down to something else, such as an increase in testing?
On the 28 July in England, Pillar 1 tests reported 64 cases, and Pillar 2 reported 512 cases – 576 in total.
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