Why China needs a deal with Donald Trump

China’s leadership knows it has badly underestimated the Trump administration’s will to raise the stakes on the trade front. They therefore hope that today’s meeting between the president and Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires produces a return to the status quo ante. The ideal outcome for Beijing would be agreement to establish an on-going dialogue similar to the one conducted earlier this century in which China could dictate the pace of concessions in order to alleviate the pressure from sanctions. This would be based on making the most of the Trump’s positive evaluation of his personal relationship with the Chinese leader and concern in the administration at the impact of tariff escalation on US consumers and inflation. It would enable Xi to go on putting himself forward as the champion of globalisation as the People’s Republic seeks friends to buttress its position and supply it with the high-tech goods it needs.