China may well attack Taiwan. According to the CIA, President Xi Jinping has instructed his armed forces to be able to strike by 2027. Nothing is certain, and there are no signs of mobilisation for an imminent attack. But beyond that, Beijing’s behaviour is consistent with Xi’s orders. It builds up its assault forces. It strengthens its nuclear arsenal. It steps up its military drills. It increasingly molests Taiwan across the board. And it makes its economy more resilient to sanctions.
We can’t know Beijing’s intent for sure. We do know it covets reunification with Taiwan as the centrepiece of its declared project to restore full Chinese nationhood and create a Sino-Centric world order. A cross-Strait crisis, mixing blockade and invasion, is the main contingency for which it prepares.
The notion that if only the west shows resolve, China won’t risk its prosperity, or will postpone aggression indefinitely, is a liberal daydream
It would be imprudent to assume that this belligerence is just theatre, and dangerously wishful to trust that China can easily be deterred from striking at its most valued object.
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