Why China can’t stop zero Covid

The Covid situation in China is not looking good right now. The authorities have trapped themselves into a situation from which there’s no obvious escape strategy. Whatever they choose – or will be forced – to do next will be very costly.

So far China has only managed to suppress Covid with brutal restrictions. Those are becoming increasingly untenable and the population is suffering. Unrest is spilling out into the streets in cities across the country. A major surge seems largely inevitable in the short term unless the authorities choose to enforce even more ruthless measures.

A major Covid wave in China would lead to a dramatic death toll. Current Omicron lineages in circulation are ‘milder’ than Alpha or Delta, but the associated morbidity/mortality is in line with early pandemic lineages for those with no prior immunity.

The country is extremely poorly prepared for a major surge of the virus.