Why Channel crossings are starting again

For a week and a half no migrants at all crossed the Channel in dinghies. A theory began to take hold that the mere prospect of migrants being transferred on to Rwanda – a plan unveiled by Home Secretary Priti Patel in mid-April – was already acting as an overwhelming deterrent to people in camps around Calais.

A few rash souls broadcast this theory directly. Tory MP Andrew Bridgen, for example, boldly declared a few days back: ‘Priti’s migrant policy is working already. No illegal migrant crossing for a week and no income for people traffickers.’

Others of a more cautious frame of mind chose to add caveats, but still allowed for the possibility of success before actual implementation of the plan. After a week of zero crossings, I declared on my own Twitter feed: ‘This will be glorious if borne out over the coming weeks, esp for all of us who have advocated offshoring.