Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Why Brown will be cheering on the Tories in Glasgow East

David Cameron is heading up to Glasgow East on Monday to make a visit with Iain Duncan Smith – and they will be campaigning like mad. You may think they’d take their foot of the pedal and leave it to the Queen’s Own Cameron Highlanders (aka the Scottish National Party). But it suits the Tories better when Brown clings on. They want him wounded, but surviving. He is, after all, the Tories’ most powerful recruiting sergeant. Remember this is a 13,500 majority on a 30,900 turnout – ie, Labour had a stonking 61% of the vote last time and the SNP 17%. Cabinet members I have spoken to uniformly predict defeat, as do bookmakers. I disagree.

The SNP has two advantages. One is momentum. The other is superior intelligence on the ground. Glasgow East is one of the modern-day rotten boroughs where no one campaigns because Labour’s majority is so big – but even Labour doesn’t campaign, and doesn’t know the area.

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