Peter Hoskin

Why Brown shouldn’t expect a significant bounce

Let’s face it: Brown’s having his moment in the sun.  The content of the G20 communique may have been awfully thin (see Fraser’s must-read analysis here), but it’s delivered backslaps from Obama; some big, headline-grabbing numbers; and an opportunity for our Dear Leader to play the statesman.  And it seems to have worked.  Despite a few qualms here and there – and a surprisingly combative interview with Alistair Darling on the Today Programme – the overall tone of the papers is positive, and you’d expect Labour to get a poll boost on the back of it.  Well done, Agent Brown.  Mission accomplished.

And yet, to my mind, the sun will fade soon enough for our PM.  There are three main reasons to think that any bounce will be limited in duration and size.  First, the fact that, once all the numbers have been picked apart, Brown’s “historic deal” will be revealed as a sham. 

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