Why did Gordon Brown call off the election? The News of the World, where I am a columnist, tells us tomorrow. It is the only newspaper to have polled in the marginal seats (a horribly expensive process) and the results exposes the type of information which Brown has been chewing over. The results are devastating. There is a six-point Tory lead in the marginals – yes, a six point Tory lead: 44% to 38%. It suggests that, if Brown did go, he’d lose his majority. Labour would still be the biggest party, with 306 seats to the 246 for the Tories.
It also confirms what ministers told me anecdotally: that Labour voters are less likely to turn out in November. When asked, 59% said they’d go to the polls against 71% of Tories.
ICM polled in the 83 most marginal Tory-Labour seats, interviewing 1,026 people between 2 and 5 October. So if anything, this underestimates the full impact of the Tory conference. If any Tory sees Michael Ashcroft in the bar tonight, they should buy him a drink. His marginal strategy worked. Brown has been scared off.
Read the full News of the World story here.
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