Why Britain’s economy will overtake Germany’s

What’s the most surprising thing that could come out of the current economic upturn? A rapid revival in northern manufacturing? The City really getting behind small British businesses? Ed Balls admitting higher public spending wasn’t always the best way to promote growth? Any of these eventualities would be fairly amazing. But the biggest surprise would perhaps be this: a gradual realisation that the UK is on track to become the largest economy in Europe.

In the 19th century, at the height of the industrial revolution, the UK outproduced all of its European competitors. It steadily lost that position, however, ceding industrial leadership to the Germans and the French. In the next couple of decades that pattern will start to reverse. As the recovery gathers steam, we are likely to out-perform the rest of Europe. And that will change the way this country is perceived, both by global businesses and by investors.