Why Boris shouldn’t be optimistic about the Bolton Covid data

I am bemused by Boris Johnson’s optimism about the prospects for full unlocking on 21 June, based on the data he says he is seeing.

Because the government’s own daily published data is showing worrying trends for the Indian variant.

For example, there were 280 Covid infections reported for Bolton alone yesterday, 10 per cent of the UK total, and as you can see here the trend is steeply upward:

That would be less worrying if there was also a steep rise in Covid testing in Bolton. But there isn’t.

As you can see here, the ratio of positive test results to tests carried out in Bolton – the positivity ratio – is holding fairly steady at about 7.5.

It is obviously encouraging that there has not been a sharp associated rise in hospitalisations. But it is still relatively early days.

I think the important point is not that we already know that the unlocking on Monday was a mistake or that it would be unwise to unlock further on 21 June.