Why Boris may well survive

When the original Sue Gray report was published at the end of January it seemed indisputable that Boris Johnson would be toast if he received a fixed penalty fine as a result of the partygate furore.

Back then the PM was hanging on to majority support on the Tory benches in Parliament by his fingertips. He put on a disastrous, flailing-around show in the Commons chamber involving various failed attempts at distraction, such as his notorious ‘Jimmy Savile’ attack on Keir Starmer.

The media clamour around alleged breaches of Covid laws by Johnson and his circle was running white hot and had garnered plenty of traction among the British public. A hitherto durable Tory poll lead evaporated in a matter of days.

Yet this afternoon we have learned that Johnson is indeed to be issued with a fixed penalty notice by the Metropolitan police, involving a fine of £50, and it seems as though he might well survive.