Why Biden might be better for Brexit Britain

At the best of times, US presidential elections require the British government to walk a tightrope. In 1992, a Tory prime minister got this very wrong. John Major’s excessive support for George Bush Sr’s unsuccessful re-election effort alienated Bill Clinton. The damage to the UK’s relationship with the country’s most important security partner was only fully repaired when Tony Blair became prime minister in 1997.

This time around, things are particularly tricky for the UK, since Donald Trump doesn’t feel bound by normal diplomatic protocols — just look at his interventions in UK politics since taking office — and isn’t shy about asking for favours from foreign leaders (see the accusations from his former national security adviser, John Bolton).

Boris Johnson is a canny enough politician not to make Major’s mistake, especially given the polls suggest Joe Biden is the clear favourite to win in November. Despite Johnson’s closeness to the President and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, he will avoid anything that looks like an endorsement of Trump.

After the government’s recent shift on China, the UK is already being taken more seriously in Washington

If Biden wins the White House there would be challenges for the UK government. Those around him are, to put it mildly, not fans of Brexit: they believe it to be bad for the US, the EU and the UK. They are particularly concerned about its effect on the Irish border. Washington is clear that any British backsliding on that protocol would cause problems, not just with a Biden White House, but on Capitol Hill, too. A Biden administration would also be particularly keen to build bridges with the EU after Trump’s hostility to it. This could leave the UK rather sidelined.

But a Biden presidency could be easier for the UK than a second Trump term. If the democratic world is in an ideological contest with China, then it needs to compete in every arena — not just walk away, as Trump has with the World Health Organisation.