Why are the Tory party in such a good mood?

Two things have been puzzling Tory high-ups in Birmingham this week: does Nigel Farage have another defector in his back pocket, and why is the Tory party in such a good mood? Many expected that a second MP defecting to Ukip would have plunged the party into the slough of despond.

One influential Tory, though, has an explanation for what’s going on. ‘The mood here is so upbeat because people think we’ve got Labour beat.’ He is, however, quick to add, ‘It is Ukip that is the problem.’

This is the paradox of British politics at the moment: it is easier to explain why either main party shouldn’t win the election than to advance an argument as to why they will. With just eight months to go, Labour trails on the economy and leadership by margins that would normally be considered terminal. But the Tories have a split on the right to contend with that makes it structurally nigh-on impossible for them to win.