Can we trust the official employment figures?

In this week of mourning, much of the news which would normally get covered has sunk without trace. Even so, this morning’s news of a drop in unemployment has managed to catch the eye. The unemployment rate has fallen by 0.2 to 3.6 per cent – below where it was at the beginning of the pandemic and at its lowest level for 48 years. This, at a time when economic growth is more of less static and the bank of England is warning us to expect a severe recession next year, is extraordinary.

I only wish that the official unemployment figure could be trusted. But there is another stark figure to come out of this morning’s release by the Office of National Statistics (ONS): that the rate of economic inactivity (people aged between 16 and 64 who are not working) has grown by 246,000 over the course of the past 12 months.