Why are experts always wrong about house prices?

Over the past two generations, those with property in the UK have been unwittingly transformed from owners to investors. This makes no sense, and has led to a lot of baby boomers feeling smug and clever when in reality they’ve just been lucky. However, the effect has been lasting and means property owners are now a politically valuable group – and that what your house is worth has disproportionately strong influence on how rich you feel.

And of course, now that everyone has an interest in the value of their home, there are plenty of supposed experts willing to pretend they’re helping you look ahead to see what will happen in the market. It’s particularly prevalent at this time of year, i.e. the beginning – and all the more keenly watched this time because of September’s Tory Tea Party and subsequent turmoil.

Culture wars have invaded the property space, with buying agents mostly pontificating that values will drop and agent-sponsored indices saying the opposite.