Why an insurgent Remain could win a second vote

Cold calculation suggests there won’t be a second referendum. It could destroy both the Tory and Labour parties, and in any case, we appear to be heading for a classic EU fudge that will postpone hard choices. But as all predictions in 2018 are likely to be false, and the Tory right appears determined to provoke a crisis, it’s worth understanding why the People’s Vote campaign thinks that next time it will be different.

They will be the insurgents and the Brexiters will be defending the status quo. Running against a failed establishment has always been a good tactic, but never more so than in the 2010s.

Remain campaigners find in focus groups that the double standards of the Brexit elite have ‘cut through,’ as the marketing departments say. They will make great play of the investment funds set up by Jacob Rees-Mogg’s firm in Ireland, Nigel Farage’s children getting German passports and Boris Johnson’s large Telegraph salary.