Why a Tory/Ukip alliance would benefit Labour

In YouGov’s poll this morning for the Sun the Conservatives had 33 percent support, Labour 40 percent, the Liberal Democrats 9 percent and Ukip 11 percent. While it would be a gross exaggeration to say all of Ukip’s support comes from the Conservative party, they do gain a disproportionate amount of support from ex-Tories and it’s natural for people to add together that Conservative 33 percent and that Ukip 11 percent and think what might be.

The reality though may not be as simple as adding the two together. In yesterday’s poll we also asked people to imagine that Ukip and the Conservatives agreed a pact at the next general election where they would not stand against each other, with Ukip backing the Conservative candidate in most constituencies and the Conservatives backing the Ukip candidate in a small number of constituencies. We then asked how they’d vote under those circumstances. Once you’ve taken out the don’t knows and wouldn’t votes, the new Conservative/Ukip alliance would be on 35 percent of the vote (up just two points on their current support), Labour would be on 45 percent (up five points on their current support), the Liberal Democrats on 11 percent (up two points), 9 percent of people would vote for other parties (down eight points).

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So what goes wrong, how does 33 plus 11 equal only 35?

The bottom line is that parties don’t own their voters – even if the Conservative party and Ukip were to want a pact, it wouldn’t follow that their voters would be happy to play along.